TIP Signal: MIDU/BTAL Switcher
Today’s Change (Oct 30, 2026)
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About
A simple switcher: when inflation-protected bonds look healthy, it takes a very aggressive bet on mid-sized U.S. stocks; when they weaken, it moves into a more defensive fund.
Each day, the strategy looks at TIP, a fund made of U.S. inflation-protected government bonds. It compares TIP’s current price to its average price over the last 6 months, with extra weight on recent days.
If TIP is above that average, the strategy buys MIDU, an aggressive fund that aims to deliver about 3x the daily move of medium-sized U.S. stocks.
If TIP falls below that average, it switches to BTAL, a defensive fund designed to hold up better when riskier stocks are struggling.
Out-of-sample: 6.84% annualized vs SPY 3.27%, with Sharpe ~0.40 and Calmar ~0.97. A macro signal times MIDU (upside) or BTAL (defense) for higher upside with disciplined risk vs the S&P 500. Drawdowns can be larger (~7% vs ~2.5%).
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.19 | 1.76 | 0.39 | 0.62 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 752.95% | 15.25% | 0.68% | 5.73% | 0.93 | |
| 21,345.91% | 42.69% | 6.4% | -11.29% | 0.99 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$2,144,590.99Regulatory Fees
$2,293.78
Total Slippage
$17,499.77
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Aug 29, 2026
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Market timing, tactical allocation, macro trend following, leveraged equity, defensive rotation