TIP Signal: MIDU/BTAL Switcher
Today’s Change (Oct 22, 2026)
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About
A simple switcher: when inflation-protected bonds look healthy, it takes a very aggressive bet on mid-sized U.S. stocks; when they weaken, it moves into a more defensive fund.
Each day, the strategy looks at TIP, a fund made of U.S. inflation-protected government bonds. It compares TIP’s current price to its average price over the last 6 months, with extra weight on recent days.
If TIP is above that average, the strategy buys MIDU, an aggressive fund that aims to deliver about 3x the daily move of medium-sized U.S. stocks.
If TIP falls below that average, it switches to BTAL, a defensive fund designed to hold up better when riskier stocks are struggling.
Out-of-sample, this strategy delivers ~26% annualized return with strong risk-adjusted performance (Calmar ~3.70), outperforming the S&P. It tactically switches between leveraged mid-cap exposure and defense based on macro TIP signals.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.19 | 1.76 | 0.39 | 0.63 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 757.08% | 15.32% | -0.05% | 3.57% | 0.94 | |
| 21,518.99% | 42.85% | 6.64% | -6.13% | 0.99 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$2,161,898.66Regulatory Fees
$2,239.19
Total Slippage
$17,070.80
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Aug 29, 2026
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Market timing, tactical allocation, macro trend following, leveraged equity, defensive rotation