The vol-y wolly
Today’s Change (Oct 22, 2026)
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About
A market-timing strategy that shifts between aggressive leveraged tech, volatility funds, and a defensive mix depending on how calm or stressed the market appears.
This strategy first asks: “Has the U.S. stock market been calm lately, or jumpy?”
If calm, it checks whether bonds have been acting stronger than cash. If yes, it goes all-in on QLD, a fund that aims to move about 2x the Nasdaq-100 (big tech/growth names). If not, it splits between two volatility funds tied to market fear.
If the market has been jumpy, it asks whether the Nasdaq has fallen very hard very recently. If yes, it again buys QLD, betting on a rebound. If not, it spreads money across a defensive mix: short-term Treasuries, the S&P 500, gold, consumer-staples stocks, and BTAL, a fund built to hold up better when speculative stocks struggle.
Out-of-sample return ~25.2% vs SPY ~21%; regime-switching uses levered tech in calm markets and hedges in turbulence for potentially bigger upside. Expect higher drawdowns (~27.6% vs ~18.8%) and slightly lower Sharpe than SPY.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Apr 30, 2023
Trading Setting
Threshold 2%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical asset allocation, regime switching, leveraged equity, volatility trading, defensive rotation, mean reversion
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 11 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
BTAL
AGF U.S. Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund
Stocks
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
Stocks
QLD
ProShares Ultra QQQ
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SVXY
ProShares Short VIX Short-Term Futures ETF
Stocks
VIXM
ProShares VIX Mid-Term Futures ETF
Stocks