A rule-based, cash-first tactical allocator that toggles between a leveraged tech bet (QLD) and volatility/defensive hedges (SVXY, VIXM, SHY, SPY, BTAL, GLD, XLP) based on bond performance, momentum, and volatility signals. Designed to ride uptrends but protect against spikes.

- Start with 100% cash. - If bonds have done better than cash over the last ~60 days (BND > BIL by cumulative return), shift into QLD, a leveraged bet on tech stocks. - If that bond-outperformance rule isn’t met, move into volatility hedges: SVXY and VIXM, to reduce risk if volatility may spike. - In a separate branch, if QQQ’s momentum signal (10-day RSI) is very low (below about 31), still go for QLD. - If the QQQ momentum signal isn’t triggering the QLD buy, instead hold a diversified defensives basket: SHY, SPY, BTAL, GLD, and XLP for about 45 days. - Weights are updated only when signals change (rebalance corridor = 2%, and there is no fixed rebalancing schedule). - The goal is to capture upside in a clear risk-on regime with QLD, while preserving capital or reducing risk in unsettled markets with volatility hedges and a diversified defensive sleeve.

Out-of-sample annualized return 30.48% vs SPY 22.36%, Calmar 1.11, and positive alpha. It shifts to leveraged tech in up markets and hedges in volatility, aiming for bigger upside while accepting higher drawdowns.