The vol-y wolly 3 check
Today’s Change (Oct 8, 2026)
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About
Blends two calm/turbulence checks with a Nasdaq “heat” gauge. In calm regimes it goes risk‑on (2× Nasdaq) or runs a hedged short‑vol carry; in stress it hedges or holds a defensive basket. The two checks are averaged 50/50.
It runs two similar rule-sets and splits money 50/50. It checks: (1) how “hot/cold” Nasdaq is (RSI = a speedometer of recent moves: high=overheated, low=washed‑out) and (2) how calm markets are (recent volatility). If calm and bonds beat T‑bills, it buys 2× Nasdaq. If overheated, it hedges with volatility funds. If not calm and not washed‑out, it holds a defensive mix (Treasuries, S&P 500, staples, gold, anti‑beta).
Out-of-sample edge: 22.65% annual return vs 21.60%, Sharpe ~1.04, drawdown 17.70% vs 18.76%, beta ~0.98. A two-regime strategy captures Nasdaq upside in calm markets and hedges in turbulence for steadier risk-adjusted growth vs the S&P 500.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Apr 30, 2023
Trading Setting
Threshold 2%
Type
Stocks
Category
Regime-switching, volatility, momentum, mean-reversion, leveraged etfs, vix hedging, defensive rotation
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 13 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
BTAL
AGF U.S. Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund
Stocks
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
Stocks
QLD
ProShares Ultra QQQ
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SVXY
ProShares Short VIX Short-Term Futures ETF
Stocks
UVXY
ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF
Stocks