Dynamic risk-parity with regime switching: levered bets on Nasdaq, financials, and long Treasuries in calm markets, switching to gold and dollars when risk rises; weights adjust by inverse volatility, aiming for balanced risk rather than fixed dollars.

- Regime signals: The system monitors market conditions to decide if we are in Risk On (calm) or Risk Off (stress). It primarily looks at Nasdaq 100 behavior and long-term treasury volatility. - Core Risk On (85% allocation to levered bets): When conditions are favorable, most money goes into three levered ETFs that capture growth or credit-related themes: TMF (long-term Treasuries), FAS (financials), and TQQQ (Nasdaq 100). The exact weights are determined by inverse-volatility over a recent window, meaning steadier assets get more money. - Risk Off hedge (defensive stance): If signals show stress, the system shifts toward hedges. The risk-off basket includes GLD (gold) and UUP (US dollar), with weights again guided by inverse volatility over a 45-day window, plus consideration of volatility/return metrics. - How the lookbacks work: Short-term metrics (e.g., 10-day max drawdown of QQQ) are used to quickly detect stress, while longer-term volatility assesses sustained risk. Thresholds are defined to trigger regime changes. - Rebalancing and tolerance: The model uses a corridor width (about 5%) to avoid constant rebalancing; only meaningful moves beyond that threshold trigger weight updates. - Practical effect: In calm markets, you get amplified exposure to growth and financials via leverage (which can generate large gains but also large losses). In stressed markets, you get hedging exposure to gold and the dollar to dampen losses, with a still-present attempt to manage downside through inverse-vol weighting. - Important notes: Leveraged ETFs magnify both gains and losses, incur costs, and can behave unpredictably in choppy markets. This strategy assumes you understand how these vehicles work and are comfortable with higher risk and potential drawdowns. Always review ETF prospectuses and understand leverage risks before investing.

Out-of-sample annualized return ~18% vs S&P ~14%; higher risk-adjusted performance (Sharpe ~0.88, Calmar ~0.92) and smaller drawdown (~19.6% vs ~22%). Dynamic risk-parity with regime-switching aims for growth with risk control.