The natty gas volatility monster
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About
A daily, rule‑based natural‑gas strategy that adapts to volatility. It favors long NG when trends stabilize, shorts only after extreme spikes, and uses UNG vs UNL to gauge front‑month strength. When NG has no edge, it rotates into bonds, gold, and major ETFs.
It trades natural gas using three funds: UNL (12‑month NG), UNG (near‑month NG), and KOLD (‑2x short NG). It buckets markets by how wild prices are (volatility) and whether that’s rising or calming. Simple trend checks (short EMA above long EMA) and a heat gauge (RSI: high=overbought, low=washed‑out) guide entries. It also compares UNG vs UNL to spot front‑month strength. Most of the time it’s long UNL; it shorts with KOLD mainly after big spikes. If no edge, it parks in QQQ, XLV, GLD, TLT. Rebalanced daily.
Diversified, rule-based exposure to energy and cross-asset rotations designed to complement the S&P. Low beta (~0.31) and regime-driven risk controls offer ballast. Out-of-sample: ~2.3% annualized return, Sharpe ~0.23; Calmar ~0.095.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.73 | 0.16 | 0.01 | 0.07 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 628.78% | 14.86% | -0.15% | 0.4% | 0.91 | |
| 1,834,705.08% | 98.32% | 6.1% | 53.17% | 2.03 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$183,480,508.15Regulatory Fees
$447,272.64
Total Slippage
$3,191,892.89
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Nov 13, 2024
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Natural gas, volatility regimes, trend and mean‑reversion, etfs, leveraged etfs, cross‑asset rotation
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 21 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BTAL
AGF U.S. Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund
Stocks
CWB
State Street SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities ETF
Stocks
GDX
VanEck Gold Miners ETF
Stocks
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
Stocks
ITA
iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF
Stocks
ITB
iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF
Stocks
KOLD
ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Natural Gas
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SMN
ProShares UltraShort Materials
Stocks
SOXX
iShares Semiconductor ETF
Stocks