The natty gas volatility monster
Today’s Change (Feb 22, 2026)
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About
A daily rules-based natural-gas trader. It classifies gas by volatility, tests trend and overbought/oversold, and sees if near-term contracts outpace long-dated. Then it buys UNL, shorts via KOLD, or rotates into diversifiers (QQQ, GLD, TLT, YCS) until conditions improve.
Each day it buckets natural gas by how jumpy it is using UNL (an ETF holding 12 months of gas futures). It checks: is volatility rising or falling, is price trending (EMA), and is gas overbought/oversold (RSI). It also sees if near‑term gas (UNG) is outrunning UNL. Then it goes long UNL, shorts via KOLD (2x inverse), or parks in diversifiers (e.g., QQQ, GLD, TLT, YCS) until a better gas setup returns.
Diversified, rules-based gas strategy with low beta and positive out-of-sample risk-adjusted returns. Offers non-correlated exposure and hedging potential to complement the S&P 500, helping diversification when markets swing.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.73 | 0.16 | 0.01 | 0.07 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 633.36% | 14.94% | 1.75% | 5.97% | 0.91 | |
| 1,828,366.01% | 98.58% | 31.9% | 57.46% | 2.03 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$182,846,600.78Regulatory Fees
$447,060.12
Total Slippage
$3,190,526.08
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Nov 13, 2024
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Natural gas, volatility regimes, trend + mean reversion, etfs, leveraged etfs, cross-asset hedges, daily rebalancing
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 21 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BTAL
AGF U.S. Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund
Stocks
CWB
State Street SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities ETF
Stocks
GDX
VanEck Gold Miners ETF
Stocks
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
Stocks
ITA
iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF
Stocks
ITB
iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF
Stocks
KOLD
ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Natural Gas
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SMN
ProShares UltraShort Materials
Stocks
SOXX
iShares Semiconductor ETF
Stocks