The Holy Grail with 20D KMLM
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A tactical, rules-based strategy that uses a tech trend gauge, short-term “heat” (RSI), and a managed‑futures barometer (KMLM) to switch among leveraged stock funds, short funds, bonds, or volatility. High risk; very swingy.
It’s a rules-driven “risk-on/risk-off” switch.
• First, it checks trend using TQQQ (a 3× Nasdaq‑100 fund). Above its 200‑day average = uptrend; below = downtrend.
• RSI(10) is a 0–100 ‘speedometer’ of recent moves (>79 very hot, <31 very cold).
Uptrend: invest ~80%. If very hot, briefly hedge with UVXY. Otherwise, use KMLM (a managed‑futures fund that often does better when stocks struggle) as a risk gauge—KMLM weak → go risk‑on (TQQQ); KMLM strong → go defensive (PSQ).
Downtrend: first try oversold bounces (TECL/SOXL). If no bounce, rotate among SQQQ (short tech), BSV (short‑term bonds), UPRO (broad stocks), or KMLM using short‑term trend and RSI. Uses leveraged ETFs; expect big swings.
Out-of-sample, this strategy offers higher risk-adjusted returns vs the S&P 500: Sharpe ~1.12 vs 0.99, Calmar ~2.09, and ~59% return vs ~17%, aided by dynamic risk-on/risk-off rules and managed-futures hedges. Note: higher drawdowns.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.3 | 0.26 | 0.01 | 0.08 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 97.31% | 14.09% | -0.15% | 0.4% | 0.86 | |
| 46,393.92% | 229.2% | 5% | 13.89% | 2.47 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$4,649,392.18Regulatory Fees
$10,366.80
Total Slippage
$68,179.67
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Sep 23, 2024
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Trend-following, mean-reversion, tactical allocation, leveraged etfs, volatility hedge, managed futures, tech-heavy, risk-on/risk-off
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 9 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BSV
Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF
Stocks
KMLM
KraneShares Mount Lucas Managed Futures Index Strategy ETF
Stocks
PSQ
ProShares Short QQQ
Stocks
SOXL
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares
Stocks
SQQQ
ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ
Stocks
TECL
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x Shares
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks
UPRO
ProShares UltraPro S&P 500
Stocks
UVXY
ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF
Stocks