Daily, rules-based rotation. First gauges rate stress (TTT vs SHYG). If stress is high, mixes defensive hedges with any pockets of strength. Otherwise checks volatility: in panics it picks calm crash‑hedges or cash; in calm it holds the S&P 500 unless bonds are weak.

Rebalanced daily. Rates test: compare a fund that gains when long‑term rates rise (TTT) with short‑term junk bonds (SHYG). If TTT’s recent momentum is stronger, split between defensives (cash‑like Treasuries, strong USD, market‑neutral/short funds) and any pockets of strength (commodities, low‑vol/consumer). Otherwise check turbulence: if recent swings exceed the past year and fear is extreme, pick the calmest crash‑hedges; if not, hold short‑term Treasuries. In calm markets, own the S&P 500 unless bonds are weak, then Treasuries.

Out-of-sample, the strategy offers stronger risk-adjusted performance than the S&P 500: Sharpe ~1.42 vs ~1.33, Calmar ~1.60, and max drawdown ~10% vs ~19% for SPY, with a low beta for smoother, more resilient growth.