TESTPORT #259: KMLM/XLK RSI Tech QQQ Switcher IV 1.0
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
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About
Daily, RSI-informed tech rotation: trend-check on QQQ, then XLK vs KMLM momentum decides Bull vs Bear tech bets using paired levered ETFs, with cash as a fallback.
- Start with full cash allocation.
- Check if QQQ is above its 200-day moving average. If not, stay in cash via BIL.
- If QQQ is above the 200-day MA, compare RSI(XLK) to RSI(KMLM):
- If RSI(XLK) > RSI(KMLM): go Bull Tech. Pick 2 of TQQQ, SOXL, TECL with the lowest RSI (14-day lookback) and short 5-day window, and allocate equally between the two.
- If RSI(XLK) <= RSI(KMLM): go Bear Tech. Pick 2 of SQQQ, SOXS, TECS with the lowest RSI (14-day lookback) and allocate equally between the two.
- Rebalance daily to maintain equal weights between the two selected assets in the active tilt.
- If cash remains, allocate to BIL (short-term Treasuries) as the sole holding.
Tech-timing sleeve with cash protection for diversification. Out-of-sample: -8.0% annualized, max DD 47.6%, Sharpe 0.19 vs SPY: +17.96% annualized, max DD 18.8%. A tactical allocation, not core equity, with risk controls.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.84 | -0.06 | 0 | -0.02 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 94.96% | 13.63% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.84 | |
| 2,851.28% | 91.11% | 7.88% | -24.72% | 1.37 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$295,128.42Regulatory Fees
$933.80
Total Slippage
$5,891.21
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Aug 26, 2024
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, momentum rotation, leveraged etfs, tech sector
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 10 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
KMLM
KraneShares Mount Lucas Managed Futures Index Strategy ETF
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SOXL
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
SOXS
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X ETF
Stocks
SQQQ
ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ
Stocks
TECL
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
TECS
Direxion Daily Technology Bear 3x ETF
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks
XLK
State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF
Stocks