TESTPORT #259: KMLM/XLK RSI Tech QQQ Switcher IV 1.0
Today’s Change (Apr 8, 2026)
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About
A tech‑focused, risk‑on/risk‑off strategy: only trade when QQQ is in a long‑term uptrend. Then, if tech outmuscles managed futures, go long leveraged tech; if not, use inverse tech ETFs. Pick the two most oversold and hold about a week.
1) Check the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ): if it’s above its 200‑day average, we’re allowed to take risk; if not, sit in T‑bills (BIL).
2) If risk is on, compare short‑term strength of tech (XLK) vs a managed‑futures fund (KMLM). If tech is stronger, go “bull”; otherwise go “bear.”
3) On that side, buy the two most beaten‑down leveraged tech ETFs, split 50/50, and hold ~5 days.
Regime-filtered tech timing aims to diversify core equity by riding tech upswings and hedging with cross-asset signals. Note: out-of-sample results show negative alpha and larger drawdowns vs the S&P 500; use as a sleeve, not core.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.85 | -0.07 | 0 | -0.02 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 92.12% | 13.16% | -2.54% | -4.14% | 0.82 | |
| 3,093.78% | 92.67% | 8.3% | 6.99% | 1.38 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$319,378.31Regulatory Fees
$945.08
Total Slippage
$5,955.35
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Aug 26, 2024
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Risk-on/risk-off, tech timing, leveraged etfs, rsi ranking, moving-average trend filter, cross-asset signal, mean reversion
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 10 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
KMLM
KraneShares Mount Lucas Managed Futures Index Strategy ETF
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SOXL
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
SOXS
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X ETF
Stocks
SQQQ
ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ
Stocks
TECL
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
TECS
Direxion Daily Technology Bear 3x ETF
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks
XLK
State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF
Stocks