Tech vs Utilities | Managed Risk
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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About
Rules-based shift between a defensive basket (bonds, dollar, gold, utilities, staples) and an aggressive 3x‑equity basket. It uses Tech vs Utilities strength, overall volatility, and a short-term stocks‑vs‑bonds check to decide when to take risk.
Switches between “Risk On” (aggressive) and “Risk Off” (defensive).
- 6‑mo strength (RSI: a simple 0–100 hot/cold score) of Tech (XLK) vs Utilities (XLU). If Tech is weaker, go defensive.
- If Tech isn’t weaker but market volatility (SPY) is high, stay defensive.
- When calm and stocks beat short‑term Treasuries (SHY), go Risk On: equal TQQQ/UPRO/UDOW (3x equity). Else, Risk Off: 50% bonds/utilities picks (TLT/IEF/SHY/XLU) + 50% safety mix (UUP, GLD, XLP, SHY).
Out-of-sample, this strategy nets 46.4% annualized return vs SPY’s 23.1%, Sharpe 1.82 vs 1.44, and Calmar 2.22, with beta ~0.78. A risk-on/risk-off system that boosts upside in calm markets and provides diversified ballast in volatility.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Jan 4, 2023
Trading Setting
Threshold 25%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation,risk-managed,sector rotation,trend/momentum,defensive assets,leveraged etfs
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 12 assets in total
Ticker
Type
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
Stocks
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks
UDOW
ProShares UltraPro Dow 30
Stocks
UPRO
ProShares UltraPro S&P 500
Stocks
UUP
Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund
Stocks
XLK
State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF
Stocks