A momentum-driven, regime-switching portfolio that toggles between a leveraged growth tilt (QQQ/SPY exposure via 3x ETFs) in favorable conditions and a defensive core (Treasuries + Utilities + cash-like safety assets) when tech underperforms utilities or volatility spikes. Uses RSI-based signals and a 25% rebalancing band to manage risk and keep allocations reasonably stable.

What this strategy does, in plain language: - It tries to read the market mood. First, it asks: is tech looking weaker than utilities on a long-term momentum measure? If tech looks weaker, the strategy tilts toward safety. If tech is not weaker, it tilts toward growth. - Momentum here means: is a group’s price moving up or down and how strong that move has been recently. The system uses simple momentum signals (RSI) and a look-back period to decide. - In a risk-off (defensive) mode, the plan is to own safer assets. It picks one or two defensive components from a pool that includes long- and short-duration Treasuries (TLT, IEF, SHY) and utilities (XLU), plus a “Safety Mix” that adds USD exposure (UUP), gold (GLD), consumer staples (XLP), and SHY for safety. The exact assets are chosen using small ranking rules (e.g., which one has the strongest or weakest momentum) to keep the mix simple and defensive. - In a risk-on (growth) mode, the plan shifts to amplified exposure in the stock market using leveraged ETFs for tech and big sectors (TQQQ for Nasdaq-100, UPRO for S&P 500, UDOW for Dow Jones). These aim to magnify gains when the market is moving up. - The switch between regimes uses two checks: the primary rule compares the RSI of XLK (tech) to XLU (utilities) over about four months. If XLK’s momentum is weaker than XLU’s, you’re in risk-off; otherwise, you’re in risk-on. A secondary volatility rule can also influence the decision when volatility spikes (it looks at a 21-day standard deviation of SPY against a threshold). - Rebalancing happens only when things drift enough (a 25% corridor), reducing churn and trading costs. - The overall aim is to capture upside when risk is favorable while anchoring the portfolio with a defensive core to limit big drawdowns.

Out-of-sample: ~46% annualized return, Sharpe ~1.82, Calmar ~2.22 vs SPY ~23% return and ~1.44 Sharpe. Regime-switching momentum with a defensive core targets higher upside, with drawdowns a bit higher than SPY.