Super Semiconductors | Dereck Nielsen
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
Rides semiconductor uptrends but cools off when the market overheats. Uses a market filter, trend checks, and buy‑the‑dip rules to shift among chip leaders, SMH, short‑term bonds, volatility hedges, or inverse chip funds.
Market filter: If the S&P 500 (SPY) is in an uptrend (short‑term avg > 200‑day), focus on chips (SMH). If SPY looks overheated (RSI = hot/cold meter), park in hedges (volatility, bonds, dollar).
Chip timing: A trend gauge (MACD) then picks either the 3 strongest chip stocks, a 50/50 SMH + short‑term Treasuries mix, or a buy‑the‑dip in SMH/SOXL when deeply oversold.
If SPY trends down, it turns defensive: short‑term bonds or inverse chip ETFs (SOXS/SSG), with rare short bounces via SOXL.
Semis-focused strategy with disciplined hedging. Out-of-sample: ~39.6% annualized return vs SPY ~20.4%, delivering stronger upside in chip cycles. Managed risk via trend timing and buy-the-dip, but expect larger drawdowns (~42% vs ~19%).
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.69 | 0.76 | 0.07 | 0.27 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 565.5% | 14.42% | -0.15% | 0.4% | 0.89 | |
| 1,880,932.83% | 101.3% | 9.65% | 42.9% | 1.71 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$188,103,283.44Regulatory Fees
$615,985.06
Total Slippage
$4,397,478.32
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Jul 27, 2023
Trading Setting
Threshold 5%
Type
Stocks
Category
Semiconductors, trend following, momentum, tactical hedging, leveraged etfs, volatility, bonds, defensive stocks, u.s. dollar
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 32 assets in total
Ticker
Type
ADI
Analog Devices, Inc.
Stocks
AMAT
Applied Materials Inc
Stocks
AMD
Advanced Micro Devices
Stocks
ASML
ASML Holding NV
Stocks
AVGO
Broadcom Inc. Common Stock
Stocks
BSV
Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF
Stocks
INTC
Intel Corp
Stocks
KLAC
KLA Corporation Common Stock
Stocks
LRCX
Lam Research Corp
Stocks
MCHP
Microchip Technology Inc
Stocks