A tactical semiconductor strategy: buy leading chip stocks and “buy the dip” when trends are healthy; when risk rises, shift to bonds, the dollar, staples, or volatility hedges—and at times short semis. Uses moving averages, MACD, and RSI to decide.

Filter: if the market (SPY) is trending up (short‑term avg > 200‑day), it leans into semiconductors; otherwise it defends. Risk‑on: if SPY looks “too hot” short term (RSI), use a volatility hedge. Else either rotate to the strongest safety asset or lean into semis using trend/dip rules (own top semi stocks, buy dips, or split with short‑term bonds). Risk‑off: contrarian long on extreme semi selloffs; otherwise use short semis or bonds; if neutral, hold semis. Signals: moving avgs, MACD (trend), RSI (“too hot/too cold”). Key ETFs: SMH (chips), SOXL/SOXS (3x up/down), SHY/BSV (short bonds), TMF (3x long bonds), UUP (US$), XLP (staples), SPLV (low‑vol), VIXY/UVXY (vol).

Out-of-sample edge: ~38% annualized return vs ~20% for the S&P, driven by semiconductors and tactical hedges. Higher volatility and drawdowns (~42% vs ~19%), but substantial upside when semis lead and risk-off hedges protect downside.