Stock Market + Energy + Commodities by Dereck Nielsen
Today’s Change (Oct 22, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
An aggressive trend-following portfolio that rotates between stocks, energy, and commodities, while moving into bonds, gold, or the dollar when markets look weak.
This portfolio splits money across 3 big ideas: stocks, energy, and commodities. It constantly checks whether prices are rising or falling using short- and long-term averages.
When trends are strong, it leans into energy, oil, natural gas, clean energy, stocks, or broad commodities. When trends weaken, it may switch to defensive holdings like short-term bonds, long-term Treasury bonds, gold, or the U.S. dollar. It also sometimes uses funds that bet on prices going down—or magnify moves up or down—so it is aggressive and can change direction quickly.
Out-of-sample edge: ~35.5% annualized return vs SPY ~27.6%, Sharpe ~1.71 vs ~1.56, Calmar ~2.90. Expect higher drawdowns (~12% vs ~9%), but higher upside from disciplined momentum in energy/commodities with hedges.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 0.85 | 0.55 | 0.74 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 46.44% | 27.95% | -0.05% | 3.57% | 1.58 | |
| 60.25% | 35.62% | 1.15% | 5.34% | 1.72 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$16,025.11Regulatory Fees
$5.49
Total Slippage
$40.65
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Jun 30, 2023
Trading Setting
Threshold 7%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical asset allocation, momentum, trend following, sector rotation, energy, commodities, leveraged/inverse etfs
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 48 assets in total
Ticker
Type
AAPL
Apple Inc.
Stocks
AMZN
Amazon.Com Inc
Stocks
APH
Amphenol Corporation
Stocks
BOIL
ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas
Stocks
BSV
Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF
Stocks
COP
ConocoPhillips
Stocks
CVE
Cenovus Energy Inc.
Stocks
CVX
Chevron Corporation
Stocks
DBC
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
Stocks
DBO
Invesco DB Oil Fund
Stocks