A rules-based strategy that owns U.S. stocks in strong markets, but in weak markets it either buys oversold dips, hides in short-term Treasuries, or bets against tech.

It first asks: is the overall U.S. stock market healthy? It measures that by whether SPY (a fund tracking the S&P 500) is above its 200-day average price. If yes, it splits money evenly between SPY and QQQ (a fund focused on big tech-heavy companies). If not, it gets cautious: it looks for markets that have fallen hard recently and may bounce (using RSI, a “recent drop” gauge). If QQQ looks very beaten down, it buys QQQ. If not, but SPY looks very beaten down, it buys SPY. If neither looks beaten down, it becomes more defensive. If QQQ is still weak in the short term, it chooses either SHY (short-term U.S. Treasury bonds, a safer parking spot) or PSQ (a fund that rises when QQQ falls), depending on which has been acting stronger lately. Otherwise, it usually holds QQQ, unless PSQ itself looks beaten down, in which case it buys PSQ.

Out-of-sample edge: 23.45% annualized return vs SPY’s 21.67%, Calmar ~1.19, and a strong risk-adjusted profile over 1,495 testing days. Regime-aware: tilt to stocks in rallies, hedge in downturns.