Std Deviations Avoids Drawdowns
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A simple daily switch: stay 100% in QQQ (big tech‑heavy Nasdaq‑100) until its short‑term swings become unusually large; then flip 100% to TLT (long‑term U.S. Treasuries). Goal: avoid deep stock drawdowns by hiding in bonds during turmoil.
Each day the strategy checks how “jumpy” QQQ (a tech‑heavy Nasdaq‑100 ETF) has been over the last ~2 weeks. If recent daily moves are unusually large, it moves 100% into TLT (an ETF of long‑term U.S. Treasury bonds). Otherwise it holds 100% QQQ. This aims to sidestep big stock declines by taking shelter in Treasuries when stock volatility spikes. The check uses a 10‑day standard‑deviation (typical size of daily moves) threshold and rebalances daily.
Out-of-sample, this strategy delivers ~36.46% annualized return vs ~29.77% for SPY, with Calmar ~4.63 and strong risk-adjusted growth. It reduces equity risk by shifting to Treasuries during spikes; max drawdown ~7.88%.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 0.74 | 0.47 | 0.69 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1,133.8% | 11.25% | -0.15% | 0.4% | 0.66 | |
| 5,746.27% | 18.84% | 0.83% | -1.83% | 0.95 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$584,627.00Regulatory Fees
$98.03
Total Slippage
$670.59
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
May 10, 2025
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Volatility-based, tactical allocation, risk-on/risk-off, equities vs treasuries, daily rebalanced, crash protection