An aggressive market-timing strategy that usually owns leveraged U.S. stocks in good times, but shifts into volatility hedges, bonds, gold, or bearish tech funds when markets look overheated or weak.

This strategy mostly wants to own **SSO**, a fund that aims to deliver about **2x the daily move of the S&P 500**. But it first checks whether the market looks **too hot**, **healthy**, or **dangerous**. It uses **RSI**, which is basically a **temperature gauge** for recent price moves. A very high RSI means prices have run up fast and may be overheated; a very low RSI means they’ve fallen fast and may be due for a bounce. **Step 1: If stocks look overheated** - If the broad U.S. stock market (**SPY**) or big tech (**QQQ**) looks extremely overheated, it moves into safety: a mix of **VIXY** and **BSV**. - **VIXY** tends to rise when market fear suddenly spikes. - **BSV** is short-term bonds, used as a calmer parking spot. **Step 2: If the market is somewhat overheated, but not extreme** - It becomes defensive instead of fully bullish. - Sometimes it uses **VIXY** plus a defensive stock mix. - That defensive mix uses: - **EUM**: a fund that benefits when emerging-market stocks fall. - **BTAL**: a defensive stock strategy fund that has tended to hold up better when riskier stocks struggle. - If conditions don’t call for that, it chooses whichever is acting stronger between: - **TLT**: long-term U.S. Treasury bonds - **IAU**: gold So in plain English: when stocks look too stretched, the strategy backs away from aggressive stock exposure and hides in fear trades, bonds, gold, or defensive funds. **Step 3: If the market is not overheated** It then asks a bigger question: **Are we in a bull market or not?** - If **SPY** is above its **200-day average** (a common long-term trend line), the strategy goes into **SSO**. - Why **SSO**? Because it’s the strategy’s main “risk-on” position: a leveraged way to benefit from a healthy U.S. stock uptrend. **Step 4: If we are not in a healthy uptrend** It looks for either: 1. a sharp rebound opportunity, or 2. a reason to bet against tech stocks. - If **QQQ** has fallen very hard recently, it buys **QLD**, which aims for about **2x the daily move of the Nasdaq-100**. That’s a rebound bet on large tech/growth stocks. - If the broader market (**SPY**) has fallen very hard, it may go back into **SSO** for a rebound in the overall market. If it does **not** see a bounce setup, it can turn bearish: - **PSQ** profits when the Nasdaq-100 falls. - **SQQQ** is a much more aggressive version that aims for about **3x the opposite daily move** of the Nasdaq-100. So when the market trend is weak, this strategy flips between **buy-the-dip** and **bet-against-tech** depending on how severe and stretched the move is. **What the strategy is really trying to do** - **In strong markets:** press the gas with **SSO** - **In overheated markets:** step aside into fear/safety assets - **In weak markets:** either catch a rebound or short tech stocks **What parts of the market it touches** - **U.S. large stocks:** SPY, SSO - **Big tech/growth stocks:** QQQ, QLD, PSQ, SQQQ - **Volatility/fear:** VIXY - **Bonds:** BSV, TLT, plus AGG/BND as signals - **Gold:** IAU - **Defensive/anti-risk stocks:** BTAL - **Emerging markets (bearish position):** EUM **Big picture** This is an **aggressive market-timing strategy**. It is not a simple “buy and hold” plan. It tries to gain more than just holding **SSO**, while also cutting losses during bad periods. But it does that by using **leveraged** and **inverse** funds, which can move very fast in either direction.

Seeks bigger upside than the S&P by dynamically switching between leveraged equities and hedges. Out-of-sample: ~28.9% annualized vs 17.3% for the S&P, Calmar ~1.15, offering strong risk-adjusted upside despite higher drawdowns.