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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A daily, rule-based rotation between AFRM stock and TQQQ. It uses AFRM’s 3-day return to pick: if AFRM >3%, go with TQQQ; if AFRM < -1%, go with AFRM; otherwise go with TQQQ. It starts from a cash-like base and rebalances every day. High leverage and quick signals mean higher risk and volatility.
Plain-English description of the decision logic:
- The system uses a simple two-asset rotation: either AFRM or TQQQ. It starts from a cash-like base (the code is labeled as a cash-equal weight step, which means the framework keeps liquidity available or divides weight evenly when possible).
- It looks at AFRM’s performance over the last 3 trading days (a 3-day window). It calculates the cumulative return of AFRM over that window (i.e., how much AFRM has gained or fallen in the last 3 days).
- If AFRM’s 3-day return is greater than 3% (signal: AFRM up a bit more than 3% in 3 days), the rule says: shift all or most of the position into TQQQ (the leveraged Nasdaq ETF). In other words, when AFRM has shown strong recent momentum, the strategy bets on broader tech/ Nasdaq strength by buying TQQQ.
- If AFRM’s 3-day return is not above 3%, the strategy then checks a secondary condition: if AFRM’s 3-day return is less than -1% (i.e., AFRM has dropped more than 1% in the last 3 days), the rule says: switch into AFRM stock.
- If AFRM’s 3-day return is between -1% and 3% (i.e., neither strong up nor strong down), the rule defaults back to TQQQ.
- The decisions are evaluated and the position updated daily (daily rebalance).
- In practice this creates a simple double-check: very strong AFRM gains → go risk-on with TQQQ; moderate/weak AFRM moves → favor AFRM; otherwise still favor TQQQ. The use of a three-day window and fixed thresholds (3% and -1%) is a lightweight momentum-style signal biased toward short-term AFRM performance to pick between a single stock and a leveraged tech ETF.
- Important: TQQQ is a highly volatile, leveraged instrument. The strategy’s use of it means higher potential gains and higher potential losses. AFRM is a single stock with company-specific risk. The daily rebalance and the thresholds imply a fairly responsive but simple rule-based approach, not a fundamental or long-term value strategy.
Out-of-sample AFRM/TQQQ rotation delivers higher risk-adjusted gains vs SPY: ~75% annualized return, Sharpe ~1.19, alpha ~0.25%, vs SPY ~18% return and Sharpe ~1.02. Drawdowns ~49%—for risk-tolerant, momentum-focused investors.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Jun 15, 2024
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Momentum, stock-pickers, levered etf, 3-day lookback, rule-based, daily rebalance
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 2 assets in total
Ticker
Type
AFRM
Affirm Holdings, Inc. Class A Common Stock
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks