A daily stock-market timing strategy: own the S&P 500 when bond/credit markets look healthy; otherwise bet against the market unless stocks look very oversold, in which case it buys for a rebound.

This strategy is almost always making a yes/no bet on the U.S. stock market. First it checks two market “health” signals: TIP (inflation-protected government bonds) and HYG (riskier corporate bonds). If both look strong versus their recent trends, it buys SPY, a fund that tracks the S&P 500. If those signals look weak, it studies how hard SPY has fallen in the last 2 days using RSI. If SPY is not extremely beaten down, it buys SH, which goes up when the S&P 500 falls. If SPY looks very beaten down, it buys SPY instead, expecting a rebound.

Out-of-sample edge: ~32.2% annualized return vs SPY -1.01%; Sharpe ~3.14 vs -0.06; Calmar ~14.66; max drawdown ~2.20% vs ~3.06%. More upside with dramatically better risk control than the S&P 500.