SPY (S&P-500) Strength Catcher V2 Medium Risk, Medium Return
Today’s Change (Jan 21, 2026)
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About
A rule-based switch between US stocks and commodities, with trend checks. In stock-friendly times it uses short-term signals to choose leveraged stock funds or, when overheated, a volatility fund. Otherwise it rotates among foreign stocks and Treasuries.
1) It first asks: over the past ~1 year, have US stocks (SPY) or commodities (DBC) been stronger?
2) If SPY is stronger: it checks if SPY is in a long-term uptrend. If yes, it uses short-term signals to either buy levered stock funds (UPRO/TQQQ) or, when stocks look overheated, a volatility fund (UVXY). If no, it rotates into the best of foreign stocks or Treasuries.
3) If DBC is stronger: if commodities are trending up, it holds DBC; otherwise it picks the best performer among foreign stocks or Treasuries.
Rebalances only when the target drifts by ~5%.
Out-of-sample edge: ~68% annualized return with Sharpe ~1.31 vs SPY ~18% and ~1.12. Calmar ~1.25; max drawdown ~54% vs ~19% for SPY. Dynamic, regime-based shifts across stocks, commodities, and bonds target higher risk-adjusted growth.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.59 | 1.72 | 0.25 | 0.5 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 677.22% | 15.46% | -1.06% | 1.23% | 0.94 | |
| 2,183,377.84% | 101.49% | -2.4% | 11.29% | 1.49 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$218,347,784.07Regulatory Fees
$506,094.52
Total Slippage
$3,614,737.94
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Sep 12, 2022
Trading Setting
Threshold 5%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical asset allocation, trend following, momentum, mean reversion, leveraged etfs, volatility trading, global macro, risk-on/risk-off
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 10 assets in total
Ticker
Type
DBC
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
Stocks
EEM
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF
Stocks
EFA
iShares MSCI EAFE ETF
Stocks
EWZ
iShares MSCI Brazil ETF
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SPY
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks
UPRO
ProShares UltraPro S&P 500
Stocks
UVXY
ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF
Stocks