SPY Short Term and Long Term Trend Following
Today’s Change (Apr 19, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
Two independent trend checks decide whether to own U.S. stocks (SPY) or sit in short‑term Treasuries (SHY). Each check controls half the money, so you end up 0%, 50%, or 100% in SPY depending on market trend.
Your money is split into two equal “voters.” Each voter asks: Is the S&P 500 (SPY) in an uptrend?
- Voter 1: Is today’s SPY price above its average price over the last ~85 trading days? If yes, buy SPY; if not, hold SHY (short‑term U.S. Treasuries).
- Voter 2: Is a fast 8‑day average (weights recent days more) above a slow 200‑day average? If yes, buy SPY; if not, hold SHY.
Both yes = 100% SPY; one yes = 50% SPY; none = 100% SHY.
Out-of-sample, this dual-trend strategy delivers superior risk-adjusted returns vs SPY: Sharpe 1.49 vs 1.22, drawdowns 8.4% vs 18.8%, beta ~0.48, Calmar 2.09, offering a smoother ride with upside potential.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 0.35 | 0.38 | 0.61 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1,182.3% | 11.37% | 6.16% | 5.09% | 0.66 | |
| 745.78% | 9.43% | 2.86% | 1.2% | 0.9 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$84,578.43Regulatory Fees
$136.44
Total Slippage
$906.73
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Jan 29, 2024
Trading Setting
Threshold 5%
Type
Stocks
Category
Trend following, tactical allocation, moving-average crossover, us large-cap equities, short-term treasuries, risk-on/risk-off