SPY Overbought Test (Publication)
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
—
A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
Daily binaryRotation: if SPY’s 10-day RSI exceeds 80, invest fully in UVXY (volatility); otherwise invest fully in SPY (broad market).
In simple terms: every day, you look at SPY’s momentum using a 10-day RSI. If SPY looks extremely overbought (RSI > 80), you buy UVXY with 100% of your investable cash. If SPY isn’t that overbought, you buy SPY with 100% of your cash. You rebalance daily, so you switch between SPY and UVXY based on the signal. The goal is to be in SPY during normal conditions and flip to a volatility bet when SPY shows extreme momentum, hoping to profit from a spike in market volatility or protect against sharp pullbacks associated with overbought readings. UVXY is a volatility-focused ETF that tends to rise when market volatility increases; SPY is a broad-market ETF that tracks the S&P 500. The 100/100 weight means you don’t split between the two assets—you allocate fully to whichever one the rule selects each day.
Out-of-sample, the SPY/UVXY binary rotation delivers higher risk-adjusted returns (Sharpe ~1.48 vs ~1.26; Calmar ~1.45) and ~27.2% annualized vs SPY's ~20.1%, with similar drawdowns. It exploits volatility spikes while staying resilient.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.14 | 0.96 | 0.6 | 0.77 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 669.43% | 15.2% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.93 | |
| 4,346.7% | 30.11% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 1.37 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$444,670.16Regulatory Fees
$223.54
Total Slippage
$1,569.43
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Jul 24, 2023
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Volatility, momentum, tactical rotation, binary-asset allocation