SPY Overbought Test (Publication)
Today’s Change (Oct 8, 2026)
—
A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
Daily switch: normally hold SPY. If SPY’s 10‑day RSI > 80 (very hot), move 100% to UVXY, a volatility ETF that can surge when stocks drop. Aims to profit from quick pullbacks; carries high risk if the rally continues.
- Each day it checks SPY (the big fund that tracks the S&P 500, i.e., 500 major U.S. stocks).
- It computes a 10‑day RSI, a 0–100 gauge of recent speed: high when gains have far outweighed losses. Above 80 = very “hot/overbought.”
- If RSI > 80, it buys UVXY, a volatility fund tied to VIX futures that often jumps when markets fall (but tends to lose value over time).
- Otherwise, it holds SPY. 100% in one or the other; rebalanced daily.
Out-of-sample: annualized return 26.88% vs SPY 19.77%; Sharpe 1.53 vs 1.27; Calmar 1.43. Beta ~0.97; max drawdown ~18.76%. 1,171-day backtest. A risk-adjusted strategy that outperforms the S&P 500 with similar downside risk.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.13 | 0.96 | 0.6 | 0.78 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 798.42% | 15.79% | 1.72% | 4.21% | 0.96 | |
| 5,303.31% | 30.53% | 1.72% | 4.2% | 1.4 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$540,331.41Regulatory Fees
$214.93
Total Slippage
$1,964.01
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Jul 24, 2023
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical market timing, rsi overbought filter, us equities (spy), volatility (uvxy), daily rebalanced