A two-state, signal-based mix (bullish vs. defensive) using SPY momentum. Bullish: 35% SPY, 35% QQQ, 10% IAU, 20% BIL. Bearish: 15% SPY, 15% QQQ, 30% IAU, 40% BIL. No automatic rebalancing; allocations switch with the signal.

Here's the idea in plain language: - The strategy watches SPY (the big broad-market fund) and asks: is the recent price trend stronger than the longer trend? It does this by comparing two simple averages of SPY’s price: a short window (10 days) and a longer window (100 days). - If the short-term average sits above the long-term average (a bullish sign), the strategy sets a growth-oriented mix: 35% SPY, 35% QQQ, 10% gold, and 20% cash-equivalent (short-term Treasuries). - If the short-term average is not above the long-term average (a less favorable sign), the strategy tilts more defensive: 15% SPY, 15% QQQ, 30% gold, and 40% cash-equivalent. - The weights add up to 100% in both cases, so you’re fully invested in the chosen mix. There is no automatic ongoing rebalancing beyond applying these two preset allocations when the signal flips. - What you’re invested in (tickers): - SPY: broad U.S. stocks (S&P 500). - QQQ: tech-heavy U.S. stocks (Nasdaq-100). - IAU: gold bullion ETF (a traditional hedge). - BIL: short-term U.S. government bonds (cash-like, adds liquidity and safety). - Why this might matter for you: in bullish times, you lean into equities with a bit of diversification (gold) and liquidity (cash). In tougher times, you reduce equity exposure and shift more into gold and cash, aiming to preserve capital while still keeping some upside optionality. - Quick takeaway: It’s a simple two-state system using a price momentum cue on SPY to decide how aggressively you’re invested in stocks versus hedges and cash.

Out-of-sample, this momentum-driven two-state mix beats SPY: Sharpe ~1.69 vs ~1.31, annualized return ~17.9% vs ~15.3%, and max drawdown ~4.29% vs ~5.07%. Higher upside with built-in hedges (gold and cash) and clearer downside protection.