SPY, Energy, Chips, Commodities 🦢
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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About
Volatility-aware rotation: if VIXM RSI(40) > 69, allocate to VIXM; else rotate 100% into the top 90-day performer among SOXX, NVDA, AMD, SPY, DBC, XLE, ENPH. Theme focuses on SPY, energy, chips, and commodities with a 5% rebalance corridor.
- What RSI and VIXM are: RSI is a momentum score that measures how strongly prices have moved recently; VIXM is an ETF that tends to rise when market volatility rises. A high RSI on VIXM signals rising fear/volatility in markets.
- Step 1: Start with cash on hand in a structure that keeps cash allocations even across decisions (wt-cash-equal).
- Step 2: Black Swan Catcher gate: compute RSI on VIXM over the last 40 days. If RSI(VIXM, 40) > 69, proceed with the then-branch actions; else proceed with the Rotator in the else-branch.
- Step 3: Then-branch (volatility spike): If the condition is true, the system considers allocating (or prioritizing) to the VIXM instrument as a hedge against rising volatility.
- Step 4: Else-branch (normal conditions): Use the Rotator to pick the single best asset from the seven candidates based on the highest 90-day moving-average return.
- Step 5: Selection details: Sort assets by their 90-day moving-average return, pick the top one, and allocate 100% of the available cash to that asset. The pool includes SOXX, NVDA, AMD, SPY, DBC, XLE, ENPH.
- Step 6: Rebalance cadence: There is no regular rebalance; a loose corridor (5%) exists to manage drift, but the default is to hold the chosen asset until the next decision cycle.
- Step 7: The big picture: The strategy channels a broad, theme-based exposure (SPY + chips, energy, commodities) and uses a volatility-trigger to hedge with VIXM when fear spikes, otherwise chasing the top momentum asset among the theme constituents.
- Simple definitions you asked for: RSI = momentum measure; VIXM = volatility hedge ETF; “moving-average-return” = performance based on the average price change over a set window (90 days here).
- In short: When fear spikes, tilt toward VIXM; otherwise go all-in on the best performer over the last 90 days from the listed assets.
Volatility-aware rotation with a VIXM hedge and a top 90-day momentum pick among chips, energy, and commodities. Out-of-sample: ~45% annualized return vs SPY ~21%; strong risk-adjusted result (Calmar ~1.04) but larger drawdowns in stress.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Dec 24, 2023
Trading Setting
Threshold 5%
Type
Stocks
Category
Volatility hedge, momentum rotation, sector/asset rotation, equities/commodities
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 8 assets in total
Ticker
Type
AMD
Advanced Micro Devices
Stocks
DBC
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
Stocks
ENPH
Enphase Energy, Inc.
Stocks
NVDA
Nvidia Corp
Stocks
SOXX
iShares Semiconductor ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
VIXM
ProShares VIX Mid-Term Futures ETF
Stocks
XLE
State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF
Stocks