SPY - Bull or Hedge
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A tactical S&P 500 strategy that rides uptrends (SPY, sometimes SPXL), but shifts to hedges—gold (GLD), the U.S. dollar (UUP), or volatility (UVXY)—during selloffs. Uses a 200‑day trend, short‑term “heat” (RSI), and big drop/surge tripwires to flip between bull and hedge.
It’s a switch between “go with stocks” and “hedge.”
- First, it checks for panic; if extreme, it briefly buys a volatility fund (UVXY).
- Otherwise it checks trend (SPY vs its 200‑day average: a long‑term trend line). Uptrend: hold the S&P 500 (SPY) and use the 3x version (SPXL) only on sharp dips (RSI = a short‑term “heat” score; low = washed out). If things get too hot or drop fast, step into gold (GLD) and the U.S. dollar (UUP), sized so the calmer one gets more. Downtrend: prefer GLD+UUP or UVXY; attempt brief bounces with SPXL only when very oversold.
Out-of-sample: ~43% return, Sharpe ~1.61, Calmar ~3.50, max drawdown ~12.3% vs SPY: ~21.7% return, Sharpe ~1.29, drawdown ~18.8%. Higher risk-adjusted upside and stronger downside protection via adaptive hedges (gold, USD, volatility).
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | -0.18 | 0.01 | -0.09 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 605.13% | 14.55% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.89 | |
| 40,534.22% | 51.87% | -0.6% | 1.4% | 1.38 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$4,063,422.33Regulatory Fees
$8,215.59
Total Slippage
$55,120.50
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Sep 21, 2022
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, trend-following, risk-on/risk-off, leveraged etfs, volatility hedge, gold, u.s. dollar
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 8 assets in total
Ticker
Type
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
Stocks
SPXL
Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
SPXU
ProShares UltraPro Short S&P 500
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SQQQ
ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ
Stocks
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
UUP
Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund
Stocks
UVXY
ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF
Stocks