SPY - Bull or Hedge
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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About
Rule-based, regime-switching strategy that shifts between stock-heavy bets (including leverage) and hedges (gold/dollar/bonds) using price trends, momentum, and volatility signals.
A rule-based decision tree continually evaluates trends, momentum, volatility, and cross-asset relationships. If signals favor risk-taking, the plan tilts toward SPY and leveraged stock bets (SPXL) with a core 85% weight in a risk-parity style mix. If signals favor safety, it shifts to hedges (GLD, UUP) and bonds (TMF) while reducing stock exposure. Signals come from moving averages, current price vs. long-term averages, and RSI on volatility ETFs like UVXY to sense volatility surges. Rebalancing is not calendar-based but rule-based, and a small corridor width controls how aggressively weights can move. The tickers are stock-market proxies, volatility hedges, and traditional hedges (gold, dollar, bonds).
Dynamic, rule-based strategy delivers higher risk-adjusted upside vs S&P 500: out-of-sample return ~43% vs SPY ~22%, Sharpe ~1.61 vs ~1.29, and max drawdown ~12% vs ~19%.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Sep 21, 2022
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Multi-asset strategy, dynamic allocation, equity leverage, volatility hedging, risk parity, tactical asset allocation
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 8 assets in total
Ticker
Type
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
Stocks
SPXL
Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
SPXU
ProShares UltraPro Short S&P 500
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SQQQ
ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ
Stocks
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
UUP
Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund
Stocks
UVXY
ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF
Stocks