SPY Avoid All Market Crashes
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
—
A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
Cash-heavy crash-avoider: most sits in T-bills; a 30% sleeve owns SPY in uptrends, otherwise bonds or oversold tech. In deep Nasdaq selloffs it hedges/shorts and, when momentum turns, rotates to Nasdaq/semis (incl. 2x funds).
Most stays in T-bills (SHV). About 30% is tactical:
- If the S&P 500 fund (SPY) is in an uptrend (price above long-term averages), it holds SPY.
- Otherwise it holds 3–7yr Treasuries (IEI) or, if the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) is very oversold (low RSI), it buys the Tech sector fund (XLK).
- In deep Nasdaq declines (~−20%/yr), it hedges/shorts QQQ (PSQ/QID). If momentum improves, it goes long QQQ or Semiconductors, incl. some 2x funds (SMH/QLD/USD). It can also use Consumer Staples (XLP). RSI = short-term “heat”; moving averages = trend.
Most out-of-sample proof: Sharpe 1.76 vs 1.45, annualized return 28.7% vs 23.2%, drawdown 10.2% vs 18.8%, and beta ~0.80. A steadier, higher-return path than the S&P 500 with better risk control.
Loading backtest data...
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
May 3, 2023
Trading Setting
Threshold 3%
Type
Stocks
Category
Trend-following, crash protection, tactical allocation, us equities, treasuries, tech tilt, leveraged/inverse etfs
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 12 assets in total
Ticker
Type
IEI
iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
PSQ
ProShares Short QQQ
Stocks
QID
ProShares UltraShort QQQ
Stocks
QLD
ProShares Ultra QQQ
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SHV
iShares Trust iShares 0-1 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SMH
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
USD
ProShares Ultra Semiconductors
Stocks