SPY Avoid All Market Crashes
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
Trend-first crash‑avoidance system. Own SPY only when multiple long‑term trends are up. Otherwise hide in Treasuries/staples; in deeper selloffs it tactically flips between tech (QQQ/SMH) and short‑QQQ (PSQ/QID) using short‑term strength signals.
Step 1: Is the S&P 500 (SPY) in a strong uptrend? It checks several 50–200 day averages. If yes, hold SPY.
Step 2: If not, go defensive in Treasuries (SHV/IEI) and Staples (XLP). In deeper selloffs it runs a tech module that flips between owning or shorting Nasdaq/semis (QQQ, SMH, QLD, USD vs PSQ, QID) using short‑term “RSI” (a 0–100 recent‑strength score) and 20‑day trends. It may buy XLK on sharp tech dips.
This trend-first strategy aims for higher upside with lower risk than SPY. In out-of-sample tests it delivers ~28.7% annualized vs ~23.2%, max drawdown ~10.2% vs ~18.8%, and Sharpe ~1.76 vs ~1.45.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.13 | 0.53 | 0.39 | 0.63 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 585.13% | 14.59% | -0.15% | 0.4% | 0.9 | |
| 1,646.39% | 22.44% | -0.15% | 0.4% | 1.52 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$174,639.46Regulatory Fees
$355.24
Total Slippage
$2,248.26
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
May 3, 2023
Trading Setting
Threshold 3%
Type
Stocks
Category
Trend following, crash protection, tactical rotation, us equities, treasuries, technology, semiconductors, inverse/leveraged etfs
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 12 assets in total
Ticker
Type
IEI
iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
PSQ
ProShares Short QQQ
Stocks
QID
ProShares UltraShort QQQ
Stocks
QLD
ProShares Ultra QQQ
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SHV
iShares Trust iShares 0-1 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SMH
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
USD
ProShares Ultra Semiconductors
Stocks