A daily, ETF-based strategy that mostly stays in SPY but tilts to QQQ or SMH only when QQQ shows an uptrend and stronger momentum than SPY, selecting the more volatile of QQQ/SMH based on recent volatility.

Here's the idea in plain language: - The model runs every day and decides which ETF to own for the next day. - It mostly uses three ETFs: SPY (broad market), QQQ (tech-heavy Nasdaq 100), and SMH (semiconductors). - Step 1: Check QQQ’s trend. If QQQ’s short-term price (50 days) is above its longer-term price (200 days), QQQ is considered in an uptrend and the model proceeds to step 2. If not, it puts you in SPY. - Step 2: Compare QQQ to SPY on momentum using a 10-day RSI. If RSI(QQQ) is higher than RSI(SPY), the model proceeds to step 3; if not, it stays in SPY. - Step 3: Among QQQ and SMH, pick the one with the higher recent volatility (the one that has moved more up and down over the last 10 days) and invest in that single ETF. - If Step 2’s condition isn’t met, or if Step 1 isn’t met, you stay in SPY. - The weightings are typically allocated so that you own one ETF at a time (the top choice), with a cash-equal mechanism implied by the structure. - Rebalance frequency is daily, so signals are refreshed every day. - In short: only tilt to tech/semis when QQQ is in uptrend and outperforming SPY on momentum; within that tilt, pick the more volatile of QQQ or SMH; otherwise stay in SPY.

Out-of-sample edge: higher risk-adjusted return with upside potential vs SPY. OOS Sharpe 1.01 vs 0.93; annualized return 27.5% vs 17.4%; max drawdown ~18.5% vs 18.8%, achieved by disciplined tech/semis tilt only in uptrends.