SPY 8d EMA/200d SMA | Current/85d SMA
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A daily, rules-based rotation: SPY when in uptrend, else tilt to XLK if tech is oversold, or park in SHV for safety. Single-asset focus (SPY/XLK/QQQ/SHV) with RSI and moving-average trend checks.
Here's the idea in plain language:
- The plan mainly wants you invested in SPY (the broad US stock market). It checks if SPY looks to be in an uptrend by comparing its current price to a long-term average (85 days). If SPY is above that long-term average, you buy SPY and stay invested there.
- If SPY isn’t clearly above that long-term average, the plan looks at a shorter-term trend: it compares the 8-day exponential moving average (an quickly updated trend line) to the 200-day simple moving average (a slower, longer-term trend line). If the short-term trend is stronger than the long-term trend (8-day EMA above 200-day SMA), you still keep SPY.
- If SPY doesn’t look to be in an uptrend by those tests, the strategy turns to momentum in tech. It checks the RSI (a momentum gauge) on QQQ (the Nasdaq-100 tech-heavy ETF). If QQQ looks very oversold (RSI below about 30), the plan tilts into XLK (the technology sector ETF) for a potential rebound in tech staying more exposed to a rally. If tech isn’t showing that oversold condition, the plan moves into SHV (short-term Treasuries) as a safety play.
- The system rebalances every trading day, and at any decision point you’re typically taking a single position from among SPY, XLK, QQQ or SHV based on the rules.
- In short: uptrend = SPY, weak trend but tech appears oversold = XLK, otherwise safety in SHV and cash-like exposure.
Out-of-sample performance beats SPY on risk-adjusted returns: oos Sharpe 1.59, Calmar 3.04, drawdown 8.4% vs 18.8%, and annualized return 25.6% vs 22.6%. Beta ~0.84 means less market risk.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Sep 18, 2023
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, trend following, sector rotation, etf rotation