SP500 - Alternate Prevent Crash and Leverage
Today’s Change (Jun 22, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
Daily rules that avoid stocks when the S&P 500 looks overheated (move to T‑Bills/bonds/gold) and lean in when it’s not (sometimes with 2x S&P). Otherwise hold SPY, buy tech on deep dips, or sit in Treasuries.
Each day the strategy checks if the S&P 500 looks hot or cool using simple “heat” gauges and trend lines.
• If very hot: park in cash‑like T‑Bills (SHV). If still elevated: rotate to the strongest of Treasuries (IEF), Gold (GLD), or short bonds (BSV). Otherwise: use 2x S&P 500 (SSO).
• If cool: if the S&P is still in an uptrend, hold SPY. If tech is deeply oversold, try Technology (XLK). Else, hold Treasuries (IEI).
Out-of-sample edge: ~50% annualized return vs ~25% for the S&P, lower max drawdown (11.5% vs 13.7%), higher Sharpe (~1.99 vs 1.31) and Calmar ~4.37. Defensive hedges plus selective leverage target bigger gains with less risk than SPY.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.14 | 0.67 | 0.38 | 0.62 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 803.61% | 14.48% | 1.36% | 13.5% | 0.88 | |
| 3,991.95% | 25.6% | 2.43% | 19.45% | 1.32 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$409,194.54Regulatory Fees
$2,001.06
Total Slippage
$16,317.57
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Mar 25, 2025
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, crash protection, s&p 500, leverage, trend filters, momentum, bonds, gold, tech tilt
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 10 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BSV
Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF
Stocks
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
Stocks
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
IEI
iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SHV
iShares Trust iShares 0-1 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SSO
ProShares Ultra S&P500
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks
XLK
State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF
Stocks