A two-track trend-following strategy that splits capital into two trend signals (200-day SMA and 100-day EMA) focused on semiconductors (SOXX/SOXL) versus Treasuries hedges (SHV/TMV). Each track allocates 90% to the chosen pair and 10% to the levered counterpart, switching between risk-on semis and risk-off bonds based on price relative to moving averages and short-term momentum (RSI). The two tracks combine to a 50/50 overall allocation, offering a disciplined yet levered tilt depending on market momentum and trend.

Two independent signal tracks each control half the portfolio. - Track A (200-day SMA): compare SOXX price to its 200-day simple moving average. If SOXX is above the 200-day SMA, tilt toward semiconductors (SOXX 90%, SOXL 10%). If not, tilt toward bonds (SHV 90%, TMV 10%). The logic also nests an RSI check in this track to refine the tilt based on short-term momentum. - Track B (100-day EMA): compare SOXX price to its 100-day exponential moving average. If SOXX is above the 100-day EMA and momentum is favorable (or oversold momentum in a specific branch), tilt toward semiconductors (SOXX 90%, SOXL 10%). If not, tilt toward bonds (SHV 90%, TMV 10%). Each track contributes 50% of the portfolio. The combined result is a trade-off between riding an uptrend in semis and hedging with bonds when the trend or momentum weakens. Leveraged ETFs (SOXL and TMV) are used only as 10% of a track to amplify moves, not as the core. Rebalancing is set to none, but there is a 5% corridor reference that could be used if rebalancing were enabled.

Out-of-sample upside: ~41% annualized vs ~22% S&P, with solid risk-adjusted metrics (Sharpe ~1.16, Calmar ~1.06). A dual-track semis/bonds tilt with modest leverage aims for disciplined growth and hedge against volatility.