A semiconductor trend strategy that is usually either heavily invested in chip stocks or mostly parked in short-term Treasuries, with small high-risk side bets using leveraged funds.

This strategy makes two separate yes/no judgments about chip stocks using SOXX, a fund that holds semiconductor companies. In each half of the portfolio, if the chip sector looks strong, it buys mostly SOXX plus a small amount of SOXL, a turbocharged version that moves about 3x as much day to day. If the sector looks weak, it moves mostly to SHV, a very short-term Treasury fund, plus a small position in TMV, a fund that benefits when long-term U.S. government bonds fall. It decides “strong” or “weak” by comparing today’s price with smoothed average prices over 100–200 days. If chip stocks have dropped hard very recently, it may still buy them, betting on a bounce.

Out-of-sample: ~45% annualized returns vs SPY ~21%, Calmar ~1.16—strong risk-adjusted gains. Trend-following semis with treasury defense. Higher drawdowns than SPY, but potential for outsized tech-cycle upside.