A high-risk market-timing strategy focused almost entirely on tech. It turns very bullish when tech is strong, gets more cautious after sharp selloffs, and can bet against tech when conditions look weak.

This strategy is a fast-moving bet on the technology sector. It first checks whether semiconductor stocks (SMH) or broad tech stocks (XLK) have been stronger lately than KMLM, a fund that often holds up better in rough markets. It measures “strength” with RSI, a simple momentum score based on recent price moves. If chips look strongest, it buys TECL, an aggressive 3x bullish tech fund. If only broad tech looks strong, it buys QQQ, a milder tech-heavy fund. If tech looks weak, it checks whether TECL has already had a very sharp recent drop. After a big drop, it chooses QQQ; otherwise it buys TECS, a 3x fund that rises when tech falls.

Out-of-sample annualized return ~71% vs SPY ~16%; Sharpe ~1.12 and Calmar ~1.63 signal strong risk-adjusted gains. Tech-driven upside with regime-based risk controls—higher drawdowns (~43% vs ~19%), but superior long-run performance vs SPY.