Single Pops (Medium Leverage - No K1 - No Black Swan Catcher) l 2 Nov 2011
Today’s Change (Oct 29, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A one-position market-timing strategy: defend with BTAL when stocks look overheated, buy leveraged stock funds or short-term bonds after sharp pullbacks, and otherwise wait in cash-like T-bills.
This strategy holds just one thing at a time.
If the U.S. stock market looks unusually “hot” after a fast run-up, it moves into BTAL, a fund built to be more defensive when high-flying stocks stumble.
If the market instead looks sharply beaten down, it may buy a 2x stock fund (Nasdaq or S&P 500) or short-term bonds, choosing whichever has fallen more recently.
If neither extreme is present, it sits in very short-term Treasury bills (BIL), which is basically a cash-like parking spot.
One-position market timing: hedge when overheated, buy beaten-down stocks or short-term bonds with modest leverage, else cash. Out-of-sample Calmar ~1.24; max drawdown ~15%; beta ~0.47. Strong risk-adjusted upside versus the S&P 500.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.12 | 0.28 | 0.1 | 0.32 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 756.22% | 15.29% | 0.88% | 4.5% | 0.93 | |
| 958.3% | 16.92% | 2.64% | 9.99% | 1.14 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$105,829.92Regulatory Fees
$361.72
Total Slippage
$2,512.10
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Apr 22, 2023
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical asset allocation, market timing, rsi, defensive rotation, leveraged etfs, us equities, short-term bonds
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 13 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BSV
Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF
Stocks
BTAL
AGF U.S. Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund
Stocks
QLD
ProShares Ultra QQQ
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SSO
ProShares Ultra S&P500
Stocks
VOOG
Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF
Stocks
VOOV
Vanguard S&P 500 Value ETF
Stocks
VTV
Vanguard Morningstar Value ETF
Stocks