Single Pops (Medium Leverage - No Black Swan Catcher) l 2 Nov 2011
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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About
A contrarian, daily‑tuned strategy: fade overheated markets by buying volatility, and buy rebounds after sharp drops with 2x stock ETFs. When nothing is extreme, hold T‑bills. Uses volatile, leveraged funds—expect big swings.
Daily it checks a 10‑day “hot/cold” score (RSI, 0–100) on big U.S. stock funds (Nasdaq QQQ, S&P 500 SPY, Tech XLK, Value/Growth and sectors). If very hot (>~80), it buys fear gauges (UVXY+VIXM) to catch a volatility pop. If very cold (<~30), it buys 2x stock funds (QLD or SSO) plus either short‑vol (SVXY) or short‑term bonds (BSV). Otherwise it sits in T‑bills (BIL). High risk: uses leveraged/volatility ETFs.
Out-of-sample, this contrarian volatility-timing strategy delivers ~32% annualized return vs SPY's ~21%, with lower drawdown (~15% vs ~19%), and favorable risk metrics (Calmar ~2.1, beta ~0.54) - more upside with less downside than the S&P 500.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.32 | 0.17 | 0.02 | 0.13 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 620.2% | 14.76% | -0.15% | 0.4% | 0.91 | |
| 9,658.69% | 37.63% | -5.83% | -3.68% | 1.57 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$975,868.99Regulatory Fees
$2,546.07
Total Slippage
$16,033.85
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Feb 2, 2024
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Contrarian rsi extremes, volatility timing, leveraged etfs, daily rebalanced, tactical, cash/t-bills
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 15 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BSV
Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF
Stocks
QLD
ProShares Ultra QQQ
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SSO
ProShares Ultra S&P500
Stocks
SVXY
ProShares Short VIX Short-Term Futures ETF
Stocks
UVXY
ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF
Stocks
VIXM
ProShares VIX Mid-Term Futures ETF
Stocks
VOOG
Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF
Stocks