Single Pops (Medium Leverage - No Black Swan Catcher) l 2 Nov 2011
Today’s Change (Nov 5, 2026)
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About
A daily market-timing strategy that hides in T-bills most of the time, buys fear-related funds when stocks look overheated, and buys aggressive rebound trades when stocks look oversold.
Each day, the strategy asks: is the stock market looking too hot or too beaten up over the last 10 days?
If many major stock indexes look unusually overheated, it moves into volatility funds (UVXY/VIXM), which are designed to rise when fear spikes.
If markets look unusually beaten down, it buys a mix of leveraged stock funds, short-term bonds, or a volatility-falling fund (SVXY).
If neither is true, it stays in very short-term Treasury bills (BIL).
Out-of-sample edge: 27.3% annualized return vs 18.5% for the S&P, lower max drawdown (15.2% vs 18.8%), higher risk-adjusted Sharpe (1.23 vs 1.17), and a low beta (0.44). Calmar ~1.79 over ~1,000 days.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.31 | 0.17 | 0.02 | 0.14 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 712.38% | 14.97% | -1.04% | -0.34% | 0.92 | |
| 11,328.92% | 37.11% | 2.42% | 3.06% | 1.57 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$1,142,892.26Regulatory Fees
$2,410.24
Total Slippage
$19,028.43
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Feb 2, 2024
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical asset allocation, market timing, rsi, leveraged etfs, volatility trading, defensive cash, mean reversion
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 15 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BSV
Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF
Stocks
QLD
ProShares Ultra QQQ
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SSO
ProShares Ultra S&P500
Stocks
SVXY
ProShares Short VIX Short-Term Futures ETF
Stocks
UVXY
ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF
Stocks
VIXM
ProShares VIX Mid-Term Futures ETF
Stocks
VOOG
Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF
Stocks