Single Pops (Medium Leverage - No Black Swan Catcher) l 2 Nov 2011
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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About
Short‑term contrarian: fades overheated markets with a long‑vol bet, and buys leveraged stock funds after sharp drops. Otherwise sits in T‑bills. Uses UVXY/VIXM, QLD/SSO, SVXY, BSV, BIL. High risk; expect big swings.
RSI = short‑term “heat” gauge (0–100). If key stock funds are very hot on a 10‑day RSI (> ~79–83) — QQQ (big tech), SPY (S&P 500), VTV/VOOV (value), VOOG (growth), XLP (staples), XLY (consumer) — it buys UVXY+VIXM (a bet on a volatility jump). If tech/market are very cold (RSI < ~28–29 on XLK/QQQ/SPY), it buys 2x stock funds (QLD or SSO) paired with cash‑like BSV or short‑vol SVXY. Otherwise it parks in T‑bills (BIL). Goal: catch quick “pops.”
Out-of-sample edge: ~31.3% annualized return vs ~22.5% for the S&P, lower drawdown (≈15.2% vs 18.8%), Calmar ~2.05, beta ~0.45, Sharpe ~1.40. A tactical volatility‑timing strategy offering bigger upside with controlled risk.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.32 | 0.17 | 0.02 | 0.13 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 605.13% | 14.55% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.89 | |
| 9,729.62% | 37.59% | 0.27% | -3.84% | 1.57 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$982,961.64Regulatory Fees
$2,555.24
Total Slippage
$16,109.61
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Apr 22, 2023
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Contrarian, mean reversion, tactical etf, volatility trading, leveraged etfs, rsi signals, risk-on/risk-off
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 15 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BSV
Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF
Stocks
QLD
ProShares Ultra QQQ
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SSO
ProShares Ultra S&P500
Stocks
SVXY
ProShares Short VIX Short-Term Futures ETF
Stocks
UVXY
ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF
Stocks
VIXM
ProShares VIX Mid-Term Futures ETF
Stocks
VOOG
Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF
Stocks