simplified Fickle MACD Bull
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
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About
A quick‑switch S&P 500 strategy: in calm markets it goes big with 3× S&P (UPRO) if stocks beat commodities; otherwise it holds the strongest safe haven. In choppy markets it uses trend (MACD) and “heat” (RSI) to hold SPY, hedge with SH, or buy dips with UPRO.
Calm? If yes and stocks > commodities, buy 3× S&P (UPRO); else hold the strongest of TIP, IEI, UUP, DBC, or GLD.
If not calm: check trend (12 vs 26‑day avg = MACD) and heat (10‑day RSI). Uptrend and cool: SPY. Uptrend but hot: SH + two top defensives. Downtrend but washed out: 3× UPRO; else two top defensives.
Tickers: SPY=S&P; UPRO=3× S&P; SH=short S&P; TIP=infl.-linked Treas.; IEI=3‑7y Treas.
Out-of-sample annualized return about 34.1% vs SPY’s 23.9%, with a Calmar ~1.12 and Sharpe ~1.03. Higher upside, smart risk controls through hedges, though downturns can be steeper (≈30% drawdown) than SPY.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25 | 1.39 | 0.44 | 0.66 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 880.97% | 14.66% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.88 | |
| 76,746.36% | 48.88% | 6.84% | 10.71% | 1.28 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$7,684,635.56Regulatory Fees
$21,899.53
Total Slippage
$144,748.58
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Oct 10, 2022
Trading Setting
Threshold 5%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, trend+momentum, volatility regime, s&p 500, leveraged etfs, risk-on/risk-off, defensive assets
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 8 assets in total
Ticker
Type
DBC
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
Stocks
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
Stocks
IEI
iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SH
ProShares Short S&P500
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TIP
iShares TIPS Bond ETF
Stocks
UPRO
ProShares UltraPro S&P 500
Stocks
UUP
Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund
Stocks