Simple TQQQ RSI mean reversion
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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About
A daily, RSI-driven binary rule that switches between UVXY (volatility hedge) and TQQQ (levered tech exposure) based on whether TQQQ’s 10-day RSI exceeds 79; designed as a mean-reversion hedge with an equal-cash wrapper.
What the strategy does, in plain language:
- It watches two ETFs: TQQQ (a very aggressive, 3x daily bet on tech stocks) and UVXY (an ETF that tends to rise when market volatility spikes).
- It uses a simple momentum score called RSI on TQQQ with a 10-day lookback. RSI is a number from 0 to 100 that helps gauge if recent price moves are strong up moves or down moves. A higher RSI suggests the price has been going up a lot recently.
- If the RSI of TQQQ over the last 10 days is above 79 (very strong up-move), the rule says: switch into UVXY (take on a hedging/volatility exposure).
- If the RSI is 79 or below, the rule says: stay in or switch to TQQQ (the levered tech exposure).
- The “wt-cash-equal” wrapper implies a cash buffer and a roughly equal weighting approach to cash versus the held ETF, so you’re not necessarily 100% in one ETF; the exact cash balance depends on implementation, but the core signal is binary between UVXY and TQQQ.
- Rebalancing happens daily so the position can switch as soon as the RSI condition changes.
- The aim is a simple mean-reversion flavor: when TQQQ looks overextended on momentum, you dampen risk by moving to UVXY; when it isn’t, you take on the higher potential return of TQQQ.
Important: this uses leveraged and volatility ETFs which are high-risk and can behave very differently from slower, broad-market funds.
Out-of-sample annualized return ~47% with Sharpe ~0.91 vs SPY’s ~16%, delivering strong risk-adjusted upside. RSI-driven switch to UVXY hedges volatility with a cash buffer—higher upside, but potential large drawdowns in downturns.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.31 | 3.16 | 0.68 | 0.82 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 669.43% | 15.2% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.93 | |
| 544,436.26% | 81.61% | -0.39% | -2.36% | 1.25 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$54,453,625.55Regulatory Fees
$21,614.76
Total Slippage
$152,200.82
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Oct 15, 2024
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Leveraged etfs, rsi-driven, mean-reversion, binary switch, hedging