Simple Regime Switching V2.2
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
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About
In uptrends, buy the single fund that just dipped most (by RSI) among SPY/QQQ and their 2x versions, or SHY. In downtrends, rotate to Treasuries or the U.S. dollar; if weakness deepens, hedge with inverse Nasdaq plus consumer staples.
1) Regime: Is SPY above its 200‑day average (a long‑term trend line)?
- Yes: buy the 1 fund with the lowest 20‑day RSI (a 0–100 “heat meter”; low = recently fell) from: SPY/SSO (S&P 500), QQQ/QLD (Nasdaq), SHY (1–3y Treasuries).
- No: if SPY’s 50‑day > 200‑day, own TLT (long Treasuries) when TLT trends up, else UUP (U.S. dollar). Otherwise, if very oversold (10‑day RSI<30) buy QLD; else split QID (2x inverse Nasdaq) and XLP (consumer staples).
Out-of-sample edge: 36.72% annualized return vs ~23.12% for the S&P; Calmar ~1.26 and Sharpe ~1.23 show strong risk-adjusted gains. Regime-switching plus bond/USD hedges offer upside with capital defense vs pure SPY exposure.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.27 | 0.45 | 0.12 | 0.35 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 553.35% | 10.36% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.6 | |
| 26,551.15% | 34.08% | -1.76% | -1.85% | 1.28 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$2,665,115.22Regulatory Fees
$9,762.84
Total Slippage
$59,442.71
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Sep 26, 2022
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Regime switching, trend following, mean reversion, tactical allocation, leveraged/inverse etfs, us equities, treasuries, u.s. dollar, defensives
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 9 assets in total
Ticker
Type
QID
ProShares UltraShort QQQ
Stocks
QLD
ProShares Ultra QQQ
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SSO
ProShares Ultra S&P500
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
UUP
Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund
Stocks
XLP
State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF
Stocks