A one-asset-at-a-time, regime-aware strategy that picks an oversold leader among five ETFs using a 20-day RSI, gates entry with a long-term trend check against SPY, and otherwise switches to alternative rules that tilt into dollars, bonds, or defensive stock exposure depending on market regime.

A flow of rules decides which single ETF to own at a time. First, examine five ETFs (broad stock exposure, plus two levered stock funds and a short-bond fund). Compute the 20-day RSI for each and pick the one with the lowest RSI (the most oversold). Check whether that asset’s price trend passes a long-term trend gate (compared to SPY’s 200-day trend). If yes, buy that asset with full weight. If not, switch to a secondary set of rules that may buy a dollar index ETF (UUP), a long-duration Treasury ETF (TLT), or a Nasdaq-related levered/inverse setup (QLD or QID, sometimes with XLP as a defensive tilt), again usually taking a single asset position with full weight. The system does not rebalance into multiple assets; it holds one asset at a time. The backtest runs from 2007-03-07 and considers a mix of stocks, bonds, currency exposure, and defensive sectors to reflect different market regimes.

Out-of-sample, this strategy targets upside: ~36.72% annualized return vs SPY ~23.12%, with Sharpe ~1.23 and Calmar ~1.26. A single-asset-at-a-time, regime-aware approach aims to ride rallies while defending in risk-off regimes.