Simple Regime Switching V2.2
Today’s Change (Nov 5, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A market-timing strategy that flips between aggressive stock bets and defensive holdings based on whether the S&P 500 looks healthy, weak, or briefly oversold.
This strategy first asks: is the U.S. stock market healthy? It uses SPY (the S&P 500) versus its 200-day average as the main signal.
If yes, it buys the one fund in its list that has been hit the hardest lately, betting on a bounce.
If no, it shifts to defense: long Treasury bonds, the U.S. dollar, or a defensive mix. In one special case, if stocks look very oversold, it makes a short-term rebound bet.
Out-of-sample regime-switching strategy targets higher growth (about 24.5% annualized vs SPY about 21%) by rotating between equities and defensives. It seeks upside with Treasuries/Dollar cushions, though drawdowns can be larger than SPY.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.26 | 0.47 | 0.13 | 0.36 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 652.73% | 10.8% | -1.04% | -0.34% | 0.62 | |
| 26,254.8% | 32.74% | -10.44% | -14.06% | 1.23 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$2,635,480.40Regulatory Fees
$9,024.04
Total Slippage
$68,555.45
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Sep 26, 2022
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Regime switching, market timing, trend following, mean reversion, tactical asset allocation, u.s. equities, treasuries, dollar
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 9 assets in total
Ticker
Type
QID
ProShares UltraShort QQQ
Stocks
QLD
ProShares Ultra QQQ
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SSO
ProShares Ultra S&P500
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
UUP
Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund
Stocks
XLP
State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF
Stocks