A rule-based, regime-switching strategy that uses SPY signals (price vs 200-day MA, 50 vs 200-day MA, RSI) to switch among QLD ( Nasdaq leverage), QID (inverse Nasdaq), UUP (dollar), TLT (long bonds), and XLP (defensive sector), with cash as a possible fallback. It’s designed to ride uptrends with leverage, defend in uncertain times, and use oversold signals for re-entry into Nasdaq exposure.

- The system looks at SPY as the market proxy and compares SPY's current price to its long-term moving average (200 days). - If SPY is above its 200-day average, the model goes fully long QLD (Nasdaq 100 levered ETF). - If SPY is not above the 200-day average, it checks a shorter-term momentum rule: SPY’s 50-day average versus its 200-day average. If this short-term signal is positive, the system tilts to other assets (often a defensive or hedging setup via UUP or TLT, depending on deeper sub-conditions about currency or bonds). - Within the downside/more defensive branches, the model may again reference UUP’s moving-average signals and, if they meet certain criteria, allocate to TLT; otherwise it may keep UUP active. - A separate rule layer uses SPY’s RSI (a momentum indicator) with a threshold of 30. If SPY RSI < 30 (indicating oversold conditions), the system returns to a Nasdaq bullish tilt via QLD. - If SPY RSI is not below 30, the strategy may allocate to QID (inverse Nasdaq) and XLP (defensive consumer-staples sector) as a more defensive combination. - The overall design is a cascade of if-else decisions that select a single asset (or cash) at any given time; rebalancing is driven by signal changes rather than fixed schedule. - The assets involved and their roles: QLD (2x NASDAQ), QID (inverse NASDAQ), SPY (market proxy), UUP (dollar strength), TLT (long Treasuries), XLP (defensive sector). The regime outcomes are intended to be additive risk controls and capture of regime shifts rather than constant diversification.

Out-of-sample: ~41.8%/yr vs SPY 23.1%, Calmar ~1.31, Sharpe ~1.15. Regime-switching, levered strategy rides uptrends (QLD) and hedges (QID/UUP/TLT/XLP) with oversold re-entries. Higher upside, but ~32% max drawdown.