Simple Regime Switching V2.1
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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About
A simple regime‑switcher: ride uptrends with 2x Nasdaq, retreat to Treasuries or the US dollar when stocks weaken, and in deep selloffs either bet on a short‑term rebound or pair inverse Nasdaq with defensive staples. Uses leveraged ETFs.
1) If the S&P 500 (SPY) is above its 200‑day average (long‑term trend), go all‑in QLD (2x Nasdaq‑100, tech‑heavy).
2) Else, if SPY’s 50‑day > 200‑day, hide in safety: TLT (long US Treasuries) if its 50‑day ≥ 200‑day; otherwise UUP (long US dollar).
3) Else, in a downtrend: if RSI‑10 on SPY (0–100 speed‑of‑moves gauge) < 30, bet on a rebound with QLD; otherwise split 50/50 QID (−2x Nasdaq‑100) and XLP (consumer‑staples).
Regime-switching strategy: 2x Nasdaq in uptrends, hedges in downturns. Out-of-sample annualized return ~41.8% vs SPY ~23.1%, with Calmar ~1.31 and Sharpe ~1.15—strong risk-adjusted upside. Expect higher drawdowns (~32%).
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.26 | 0.8 | 0.23 | 0.48 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 567.31% | 10.5% | -0.15% | 0.4% | 0.6 | |
| 31,400.05% | 35.34% | 0.99% | -5.44% | 1.08 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$3,150,004.57Regulatory Fees
$1,701.96
Total Slippage
$9,895.43
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Sep 26, 2022
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Regime switching, trend following, mean reversion, tactical allocation, leveraged etfs, inverse etfs, multi-asset, risk-on/risk-off
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 6 assets in total