Simple Regime Switching V2.2
Today’s Change (Oct 22, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A market-timing strategy that flips between aggressive stock bets and defensive holdings based on whether the S&P 500 looks healthy, weak, or briefly oversold.
This strategy first asks: is the U.S. stock market healthy? It uses SPY (the S&P 500) versus its 200-day average as the main signal.
If yes, it buys the one fund in its list that has been hit the hardest lately, betting on a bounce.
If no, it shifts to defense: long Treasury bonds, the U.S. dollar, or a defensive mix. In one special case, if stocks look very oversold, it makes a short-term rebound bet.
Out-of-sample edge: ~27.7% annualized return vs SPY’s ~21.8%, with an adaptive regime-switching approach shifting to safety in weak markets. Higher upside, but larger drawdowns and slightly lower Sharpe than SPY.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.26 | 0.46 | 0.13 | 0.36 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 658.9% | 10.87% | -0.05% | 3.57% | 0.63 | |
| 29,007.78% | 33.49% | -1.05% | -1.64% | 1.26 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$2,910,777.62Regulatory Fees
$9,023.11
Total Slippage
$68,555.52
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Sep 26, 2022
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Regime switching, market timing, trend following, mean reversion, tactical asset allocation, u.s. equities, treasuries, dollar
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 9 assets in total
Ticker
Type
QID
ProShares UltraShort QQQ
Stocks
QLD
ProShares Ultra QQQ
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SSO
ProShares Ultra S&P500
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
UUP
Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund
Stocks
XLP
State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF
Stocks