A simple regime-switching dip-buying strategy that uses SPY trend and a short-term momentum signal to pick one of QQQ, QLD, or XLP. No regular rebalancing; levered Nasdaq is used only in down markets when SPY appears oversold. Backtested starting 2006-06-21.

What it does in plain language: The strategy watches SPY (the S&P 500 ETF) to decide the market regime. If SPY is above its 200-day average, the market is considered in an uptrend. In that case, if SPY looks oversold on a short-term momentum measure (RSI under 30, using a 10-day lookback), it buys Nasdaq exposure via QQQ. If SPY is not oversold, it moves to a defensive choice, XLP (a consumer staples fund). If SPY is below its 200-day average (a downtrend), the strategy looks for oversold conditions again. If oversold, it uses the leveraged Nasdaq fund QLD (2x Nasdaq) to try to catch a bounce; otherwise it stays in XLP. RSI here is a simple momentum gauge: RSI below 30 suggests oversold, RSI above that suggests not oversold. All trades are single-asset allocations (100% into one ETF at a time); there is no periodic rebalancing. The backtest runs from 2006-06-21 onward.

Out-of-sample edge: ~34% annualized vs SPY ~23%, Sharpe ~1.39 vs 1.36, Calmar ~1.52. Regime-switching dip-buying with single-asset bets (QQQ/QLD/XLP) and levered Nasdaq in dips aims for higher upside; drawdowns can be larger (~22.6%).